How to read this forecast
Each bar shows the projected fundraising climate score for that month — the higher the bar, the better the giving environment.
The shaded band above and below shows the range of likely outcomes based on how volatile each economic signal has been historically.
A wider band means more uncertainty. The risk rating below each bar tells you at a glance whether that month is a good time to push hard, hold steady, or focus on retention.
Risk ratings:
High Risk — protect retention, pause major asks
Elevated Risk — steward, don't push
Caution — selective asks only
Stabilizing — conditions improving
Opportunity — favorable for asks
Run Climate Analysis to generate forecast
Month-by-month climate scores for 2026 based on actual economic conditions each month.
Scores reflect the giving level selected above. New months are added as data becomes available.
The chart below shows the model score for each year (bar height) alongside the actual Giving USA change in charitable giving (line). Years where the model and actual giving moved in the same direction are correct calls. Shock events are labeled — these represent conditions the model cannot fully predict from economic signals alone.
Model score ≥ 60 (favorable)
Model score 45–59 (caution)
Model score < 45 (challenging)
Actual giving YoY change